ANALISIS HUBUNGAN PRECIPITABLE WATER HARIAN DENGAN FENOMENA OSCILLASI MADDEN-JULIAN (MJO) PADA SKALA INTRASEASONAL MENGGUNAKAN METODE EOF (2001-2021)
Abstract
Penelitian ini menganalisis hubungan antara Precipitable Water (PW) harian dan fenomena Oscillasi Madden-Julian (MJO) pada skala intraseasonal menggunakan metode Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) selama periode 2001-2021. Data PW harian diperoleh dari Reanalysis Data dan difokuskan pada wilayah Indonesia, khususnya Sumatera. Metode EOF digunakan untuk mengidentifikasi pola dominan dalam distribusi spasial dan temporal PW, yang kemudian dikaitkan dengan fase-fase MJO. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa nilai PW di wilayah ini sangat dipengaruhi oleh aktivitas MJO, terutama pada fase konvektif, yang meningkatkan potensi pembentukan awan dan curah hujan. Mode EOF pertama menggambarkan pola variabilitas dominan yang berkaitan erat dengan mekanisme atmosfer tropis. Distribusi PW bervariasi sesuai fase MJO, dengan nilai tertinggi pada musim hujan (Desember-Februari) dan terendah pada musim kemarau (Juni-Agustus). Penelitian ini memberikan wawasan penting tentang dinamika atmosfer di Indonesia, mendukung prakiraan cuaca yang lebih akurat, serta mitigasi dampak cuaca ekstrem. This study examines the relationship between daily Precipitable Water (PW) and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) phenomenon on an intraseasonal scale using the Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) method for the period 2001-2021. Daily PW data were sourced from Reanalysis Data and focused on the Indonesian region, specifically Sumatra. The EOF method was employed to identify dominant patterns in the spatial and temporal distribution of PW, which were then correlated with MJO phases. Results indicate that PW values in this region are significantly influenced by MJO activity, especially during convective phases, which enhance cloud formation and precipitation potential. The first EOF mode highlights dominant variability patterns strongly associated with tropical atmospheric mechanisms. PW distribution varies across MJO phases, with the highest values during the wet season (December-February) and the lowest during the dry season (June-August). This study provides critical insights into atmospheric dynamics in Indonesia, supporting more accurate weather forecasts and extreme weather impact mitigation.Air terpresipitasiReferences
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