Membalikkan Tren Penurunan Angka Pernikahan: Menutup Celah Regulasi Bimbingan Perkawinan Wajib Berbasis Literasi Digital di Indonesia

Abstract

Indonesia's national marriage rate has declined steadily over the past decade, falling from roughly 1.9 million couples in 2013 to fewer than 1.7 million in 2022. This paper argues that the decline is not merely due to economic hardship or shifting social values. Still, it is potentially associated with a cognitive phenomenon this paper terms "Marriage is Scary": a distorted perception of marriage cultivated by the disproportionate visibility of divorce, domestic conflict, and abuse narratives on social media platforms. The study adopts a qualitative policy-analysis design, combining secondary data analysis (BPS, Bappenas, IPB), regulatory document review, and structured problem-diagnosis techniques (Urgency-Seriousness-Growth scoring and Five Whys root-cause analysis), and interpreting the findings through Cultivation Theory, Rational Choice Theory, and Sztompka's Theory of Social Change. The analysis finds that existing pre-marital guidance (Bimbingan Perkawinan/Bimwin) under KMA No. 379/2018 remains optional, unevenly implemented, and devoid of any digital-literacy component, leaving prospective couples cognitively unprepared for the information environment they inhabit. Using a Bardach-Dunn multi-criteria scoring framework across effectiveness, institutional-fiscal feasibility, and public acceptability, mandatory, digital-literacy-integrated Bimwin scores highest (14/15) among three policy alternatives, outperforming digital counter-narrative campaigns (11/15) and direct marriage subsidies (8/15). The paper recommends that the Minister of Religious Affairs issue a Ministerial Regulation (Permenag) mandating standardized pre-marital guidance, integrated with the SIMKAH registration system, as a condition for marriage registration. The policy leverages existing KUA infrastructure across all Indonesian sub-districts, requiring modest fiscal outlay while directly addressing the cognitive root of the decline.